Category: Finacial Market News

Finacial Market News

Dollar Drifts Lower Against Major Rivals

After showing some strength in the Asian session amid concerns over a possible slowdown in global growth momentum, the U.S. dollar retreated on Friday as stock markets turned positive and the rally in Treasuries halted. The dollar index, which advanced to 92.54 in the Asian session, dropped to 92.09, down nearly 0.4% from Thursday’s close. Against the Euro, the dollar weakened to 1.1880, giving up nearly 0.3%. The Pound Sterling gained sharply, fetching $1.3899 a unit, compared with $1.3788 Thursday evening. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK economy expanded for the fourth consecutive month in May, albeit at a slower pace and remained below the pre-pandemic levels. The Yen weakened to 110.13 against the dollar, easing from 109.76. Against the Aussie, the dollar dropped to 0.7492, losing 0.85% from 0.7429. The Swiss Franc recovered to 0.9138 a dollar from 0.9154. The Loonie strengthened to 1.2439 a dollar from 1.2534 Thursday evening, after data showed a bigger than expected increase in Canadian job growth. Data from Statistics Canada showed that employment rose by 230,700 jobs in June following a decrease of 68,000 jobs in May. Economists had expected employment to grow by 195,000 jobs. The unemployment rate in Canada dropped to 7.8% in June from 8.2% in May. Economists had expected the employment rate to fall by 7.7%. .

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Silver Prices Race Higher to Create a Failed Breakdown

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Silver prices gained 6.63% last week to reverse the direction of the price action and create a major buy signal. Commodity investors are focused on the U.S. stimulus bill that is still being discussed among the lawmakers.

“Softer jobs growth and tighter social mobility restrictions ostensibly lower the hurdle for a policy response from (U.S.) Congress,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at financial services firm Axi.

Silver prices had initially broken down below the triangle’s support at $23.40 and pushed to $21.89, which is the 2-month low for the metal. However, the buyers have managed to reverse the downtrend and force a bullish weekly close above the $24 mark. The price action now faces a strong resistance block in the area of $24.80 – $25.00.

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Brexit Trade Talks News

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According to the guardian, EU sources said that as part of a broader compromise, the UK has played down a key requirement for fishing rights after brexit, that is, the British should hold a majority stake in fishing vessels currently flying the British flag in the future. According to the new

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fishing arrangement next year, the catch of these fishing vessels will increase. The settlement of this issue is an important step towards reaching an agreement. On Monday, EU chief justice for brexit talks told members of the

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European Parliament that in response, he had made a compromise on the “framework” of the fisheries agreement and accepted that there would be a transitional period for gradual change. But Britain and Europe have yet to reach an agreement on how many EU fishing vessels in British waters will be repatriated and whether they can fish in waters 6 to 12 miles off the British coast.

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Risk Conditions will Dominate Currency Markets

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Optimism over the 2021 global growth outlook has remained strong with on-going expectations that coronavirus vaccines would have a crucial positive impact next year. Political decisions will dominate in the short term with Brexit trade talks and US congressional developments. There has also been fresh optimism that the US Congress would agree a fiscal stimulus plan. This combination supported risk appetite with fresh gains for equities. In this environment, the US dollar lost ground with a fresh flow of funds into risk assets. There were still concerns over the short-term outlook with further coronavirus restrictions in Europe and the US. There were, therefore, strong expectations that global central banks would maintain very loose monetary policies. If risk appetite holds firm, the dollar will tend to remain vulnerable, but there will also be the risk of sharp reversal and high volatility, especially with liquidity declining into the holiday period.

EUR/USD

At its latest policy meeting, the ECB announced a further increase in its bond buying programme which will continue into 2022 and another round of cheap loans for the banking sector. There were no surprises in the statement and there was no escalation in protests against a strong Euro. The single currency overall made gains following the meeting. US data releases had little overall impact. The dollar overall remained on the defensive and EUR/USD moved above 1.2150. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday with the potential for changes to the bond-buying programme. The Fed will also release its latest economic projections and Chair Powell will hold a press conference. Markets expect an on-going commitment to a very loose policy, but the dollar could bounce if rhetoric is less dovish than expected.

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US Dollar Slides to 31-month Lows

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There was further optimism over the 2021 global growth outlook with on-going expectations that there would be positive developments surrounding coronavirus vaccines.

These positive expectations offset unease over near-term developments and there was also evidence that the infections rates in Europe were peaking which underpinned sentiment. Markets expected very supportive monetary policies to be sustained and hopes for near-term US fiscal stimulus also increased.

Although President Trump made no concession, there was a move to transition for Vice-President Biden’s team which helped underpin confidence. Overall risk appetite remained strong which boosted demand for pro-risk assets such as commodity currencies.

The US dollar lost ground as investors moved towards other assets and the dollar also lost ground as defensive demand declined. The US currency was also undermined by expectations of a sustained lack of yield support next year. In this environment, the US dollar declined to 31-month lows.

The dollar overall is likely to remain vulnerable with further net losses, although with the potential for a significant correction at times from over-sold conditions.

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The Road to Economic Recovery is Still Full of Challenges

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EUR/USD

Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB’s Executive Committee, said on Monday that price pressures in the euro zone will remain moderate for a longer period of time. Data on Thursday showed that the November core inflation rate in the euro zone remained unchanged. Von der Leyen said on Wednesday that there was a road to reach an agreement, although the road was very narrow. There are still huge differences with the British government on many issues, especially in fisheries. Germany’s December Ifo Business Climate was 92.1, higher than last month’s 90.7, and also higher than market expectations of 90.0. From the chart, the EUR broke away from the consolidation of the previous week and continued to rise, and the golden cross signal appeared in the moving average pattern. Support 1.2072 Resistance 1.2272.