Category: forex

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U.S. Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Tumble 1.9% In June

Pending home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a notable decrease in the month of June, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday. NAR said its pending home sales index tumbled by 1.9 percent to 112.8 in June after soaring by 8.3 percent to a revised 115.0 in May. The pullback surprised economists, who had expected pending home sales to edge up by 0.3 percent compared to the 8.0 percent spike originally reported for the previous month. A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale. “Pending sales have seesawed since January, indicating a turning point for the market,” said NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Buyers are still interested and want to own a home, but record-high home prices are causing some to retreat.” “The moderate slowdown in sales is largely due to the huge spike in home prices,” he continued. “The Midwest region offers the most affordable costs for a home and hence that region has seen better sales activity compared to other areas in recent months.” The unexpected drop in pending home sales reflected weakness in the South and West, where pending sales slumped by 3.0 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. On the other hand, the report showed pending home sales in the Northeast and Midwest rose by 0.5 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. The Commerce Department released a separate report on Monday unexpectedly showing another steep drop in U.S. new home sales in the month of June. The report said new home sales tumbled by 6.6 percent to an annual rate of 676,000 in June after plunging by 7.8 percent to a revised rate of 724,000 in May. The continued nosedive surprised economists, who had expected new home sales to jump by 4.0 percent to an annual rate of 800,000 from the 769,000 originally reported for the previous month. .

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Dollar Extends Fall On Disappointing U.S. GDP Data; Powell’s Dovish Stance

The U.S. dollar extended its decline against its major trading partners in the European session on Thursday, as the economy expanded less than forecast in the second quarter and on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that rate hikes are unlikely to happen anytime soon. Data from Commerce Department showed that GDP rose by 6.5 percent in the second quarter following a 6.3 percent jump in the first quarter. Economists had expected GDP to spike by 8.5 percent. The GDP growth in the second quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, non-residential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending. However, decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending limited the upside along with an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. The Fed Chair affirmed that the economy was “still a ways off” from reaching a standard of “substantial further progress” to scale back the asset purchase program. Powell added that although the economy has made progress towards its goals for inflation and labor market since the June meeting, the threshold to begin tapering bond purchases has not been achieved. The Fed chief remarked that “there is still a long way to go” to attain a full recovery in the labor market. The U.S. Senate voted to push forward a bipartisan infrastructure plan amounting to $550 billion, which includes funding for roads, bridges, broadband and other physical infrastructure. The five-year spending package would be paid for using COVID-19 relief funds, illegally paid unemployment benefits during the crisis and unutilized federal unemployment funds. The currency fell in the Asian session, as Powell maintained a dovish stance, saying that rate increases were far away. The greenback dropped to its lowest level since June 16 against the franc, at 0.9066. At yesterday’s trading close, the pair was quoted at 0.9100. Further drop in the currency may challenge support around the 0.88 level. The greenback lost 0.4 percent to more than a 3-week low of 1.1889 against the euro. The pair was worth 1.1843 when it closed deals on Wednesday. Should the greenback dips further, 1.21 is possibly seen as its next support level. Survey results from the European Commission showed that Eurozone economic confidence hit a record high in July driven by rising sentiment in the industrial and service sectors. The economic confidence index rose to 119.0 from 117.9 in June. This was the highest since records began in 1985 and also well above economists’ forecast of 118.5. The greenback declined 0.6 percent to 1.3982 against the pound for the first time since June 24. The pound-greenback pair had ended yesterday’s trading session at 1.3897. The greenback is seen facing support around the 1.41 level. Data from the Bank of England showed that the UK mortgage borrowing hit a record level in June, ahead of the lower stamp duty rates began to taper off from July. Net mortgage borrowing reached a record GBP 17.9 billion in June. Evidence suggests there has been a shortening of time between a mortgage being approved and the lending itself, the BoE said. The greenback touched a 2-day low of 0.7005 against the kiwi, down from Wednesday’s trading close of 0.6955. Immediate support for the greenback is likely located around the 0.72 level. Survey results from ANZ showed that New Zealand business confidence eased in July. The business confidence index fell to -3.8 in July from -0.6 in June. The own activity outlook index dropped to 26.3 from 31.6 in the previous month. The greenback was down by 0.4 percent against the yen, at a 9-day low of 109.50. The pair had closed Wednesday’s deals at 109.91. The greenback is likely to test support around the 107.00 level. The greenback held steady against the loonie, after having fallen to a fresh 2-week low of 1.2451 at 4:30 am ET. The greenback was trading at 1.2521 against the loonie at yesterday’s close. The U.S. currency, however, bounced off from nearly a 2-week low of 0.7413 against the aussie, with the pair trading at 0.7399. The greenback was worth 0.7374 per aussie at Wednesday’s New York session close. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that Australia export prices rose 13.2 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2021 – accelerating from 11.2 percent in the previous three months. On a yearly basis, export prices surged 26.0 percent. .

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Sweden Economy Grows More Than Expected In Q2

Sweden’s economy expanded at a faster than expected pace in the second quarter, preliminary data from the statistical office showed Thursday. Gross domestic product grew a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent from the first quarter, when the economy expanded 0.8 percent. Economists had expected 0.7 percent growth. Compared to the same quarter last year, GDP rose a working-day adjusted 10 percent after remaining unchanged in the first three months of the year. “Year on year growth rates are the highest we currently have in our time series on Swedish GDP,” Statistics Sweden economist Melker Loberg said. “This should be seen in the light of the severe economic effects of the pandemic on the economy in the second quarter last year. ” .

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Seven-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

Finishing off this week’s series of announcements of the results of its long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department revealed Thursday that this month’s auction of $62 billion worth of seven-year notes attracted below average demand. The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.050 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.23 Last month, the Treasury also sold $62 billion worth of seven-year notes, drawing a high yield of 1.264 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.36. The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold. The ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.30. Earlier this week, the Treasury revealed its auction of $60 billion worth of two-year notes attracted modestly below average demand, while its auction of $61 billion worth of five-year notes attracted average demand. .

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IMF Raises Global Growth Forecast For Next Year

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised the global growth forecast for next year and the growth is projected to be driven largely by the expansion in the advanced economies, while their emerging and developing peers are set to have modest gains. The global growth forecast for 2022 was raised to 4.9 percent from 4.4 percent, the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Forecast. “The 0.5 percentage-point upgrade for 2022 derives largely from the forecast upgrade for advanced economies, particularly the United States, reflecting the anticipated legislation of additional fiscal support in the second half of 2021 and improved health metrics more broadly across the group,” the IMF said. The growth projection for this year was retained at 6.0 percent. “The recovery is not assured until the pandemic is beaten back globally,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said. The global lender forecast inflation to return to its pre-Covid levels in most countries next year, once the impact of the unusual developments related to the pandemic and transitory supply-demand mismatches work their way through prices. High food prices may lead to elevated inflation in some emerging market and developing economies, the report said. The IMF urged central banks to generally look through transitory inflation pressures and avoid tightening until there is more clarity on underlying price dynamics. The lender also stressed that clear communication from central banks on the outlook for monetary policy will be key to shaping inflation expectations and safeguarding against premature tightening of financial conditions. “There is, however, a risk that transitory pressures could become more persistent and central banks may need to take preemptive action,” the IMF said. .

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U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Inches Higher In July

Consumer confidence in the U.S. saw a slight improvement from an upwardly revised level in the month of July, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index inched up to 129.1 in July from an upwardly revised 128.9 in June. Economists had expected the index to drop to 124.9 from the 127.3 originally reported for the previous month. With the unexpected uptick, the consumer confidence index reached its highest level since hitting 132.6 in February of 2020. “Spending intentions picked up in July, with a larger percentage of consumers saying they planned to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances in the coming months,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. She added, “Thus, consumer spending should continue to support robust economic growth in the second half of 2021.” The modest increase by the headline index came as the present situation index crept up to 160.3 in July from 159.6 in June. Consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions improved slightly, while their assessment of the labor market was relatively flat. Meanwhile, the report showed the expectations index came in at 108.4 in July, virtually unchanged from 108.5 in the previous month. While consumers’ optimism about the short-term business conditions outlook eased slightly, they remained upbeat about their short-term financial prospects. On Friday, the University of Michigan is scheduled to release its revised reading on consumer sentiment in the month of July. The consumer sentiment index for July is expected to be unrevised from the preliminary reading of 80.8, which was down from 85.5 in June. .

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Treasuries Close Modestly Higher But Well Off Best Levels

After trending lower over the past few sessions, treasuries regained some ground during trading on Monday. Bond prices pulled back after seeing initial strength but managed to close modestly higher. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by 1 basis point to 1.276 percent. The early advance by treasuries may have reflected concerns about the outlook for the global economy as the delta variant of the coronavirus continues to spread. Worries about tensions between the U.S. and China may also have increased the appeal of bonds, with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng saying that the relationship between the world’s two largest economies “is now in a stalemate and faces serious difficulties.” Buying interest waned shortly after the start of trading, however, as traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but traders will be paying close attention to any comments regarding the central bank’s asset purchase program. In U.S. economic news, the Commerce Department released a report this morning unexpectedly showing another steep drop in new home sales in the month of June. The report said new home sales tumbled by 6.6 percent to an annual rate of 676,000 in June after plunging by 7.8 percent to a revised rate of 724,000 in May. The continued nosedive surprised economists, who had expected new home sales to jump by 4.0 percent to an annual rate of 800,000 from the 769,000 originally reported for the previous month. With the unexpected decrease, new home sales slumped to their lowest annual rate since hitting 582,000 in April of last year. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department revealed this month’s auction of $60 billion worth of two-year notes attracted modestly below average demand. The two-year note auction drew a high yield of 0.213 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.47, while the ten previous two-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53. The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold. Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to announce the results of this month’s auction of $61 billion worth of five-year notes on Tuesday Trading on Tuesday may also be impacted by reaction to reports on durable goods orders and consumer confidence, although activity is likely to remain light ahead of the Fed announcement. .

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Dollar Loses Ground Against Peers As Traders Await Fed Meeting

The U.S. dollar lost ground against its major rivals on Monday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting which begins on Tuesday. The dollar fell as treasury yields dropped after talks between the U.S. and China failed to resolve outstanding issues between the two sides triggered buying interest in safe-haven treasury bonds. China’s Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng accused the Biden administration for suppressing the country’s development and urged Washington “to change its highly misguided mindset and dangerous policy.” Traders now look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting for more hints about its plan to scale back the bond buying program. It is widely expected that the Fed will likely keep its funds target rate and quantitative easing programme unchanged. All eyes will be on the central bank’s ongoing debate on tapering its $120 billion a month bond buying program. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that current inflationary pressures could be transitory and stimulus measures will remain in place for some time. In U.S. economic news, a report from the Commerce Department showed an unexpected steep drop in new home sales in the month of June. The report said new home sales tumbled by 6.6% to an annual rate of 676,000 in June after plunging by 7.8% to a revised rate of 724,000 in May. Economists had expected new home sales to jump by 4% to an annual rate of 800,000 from the 769,000 originally reported for the previous month. With the unexpected decrease, new home sales slumped to their lowest annual rate since hitting 582,000 in April of last year. The dollar index, which drifted down to 92.53, recovered a bit to 92.62, but was still down more than 0.3% from Friday’s close. Against the Euro, the dollar weakened to 1.1806, giving up nearly 0.3% from Friday’s 1.1772. A survey showed German business confidence unexpectedly weakened in July as managers’ optimism was clouded by problems with the supply of raw materials and other products and by an upturn in coronavirus infections. The Pound Sterling was stronger against the dollar, fetching $1.3823 a unit, gaining from $1.3748. The Bank of England’s external monetary policy committee member Gertjan Vlieghe said in a speech to the London School of Economics that the current monetary stimulus should be maintained for several quarters at least, and probably longer. Against the Yen, the dollar weakened to 110.39 yen, easing from 110.55. The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in July, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 52.2. The dollar dropped to 0.7383 against the Aussie from 0.7366. The Swiss franc firmed to 0.9155 a dollar from 0.9194. The dollar was weak against the Loonie as well, dropping to C$1.2545 from C$1.2564. .

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外匯交易經驗教訓總結

無論是投資國內市場,還是投資國外市場,不論是投資一般商品,還是投資金融商品,投資的基本策略是一致的,在外匯市場上尤為如此。每個人投資的策略雖有不同之處,但有一些是基本的,如下面的策略總結,我們多年外匯交易的經驗和教訓,對各種投資者來說,都有相當的參考價值。

  1.以閒餘資金投資

  如果投資者以家庭生活的必須費用來投資,萬一虧損,就會直接影響家庭生計的話,在投資市場裡失敗的機會就會增加。因為用一筆不該用來投資的錢來生財時,心理上已處於下風,因此在決策時亦難以保持客觀、冷靜的態度。虧得起多少做多少。

  2.切勿過量交易

  要成為成功投資者,其中一項原則是隨時保持百分之八十的資金以應付價位的波動,每次交易成本只用本金的百分之一十到百分之二十之間。假如閣下資金不充足,應減少手上所持的買賣合約,否則,就可能因資金不足而被迫”爆倉”以騰出資金出來,縱然後來證明眼光準確亦無濟於事。

  彈藥不要一次用光,子彈隨時上膛。

  3.正視市場,摒棄幻想

  不要感情用事,過分憧憬將來和緬懷過去。一位美國期貨交易員說:一個充滿希望的人是一個美好和快樂的人,但他並不適合做投資家,一位成功的投資者是可以分開他的感情和交易的。

  市場永遠是對的,錯的總是自己。

  4.勿輕率改變主意

  預先訂下當日入市的價位和策略,勿因眼前價格漲落影響而輕易改變決定,基於當日價位的變化以及市場消息而臨時作出決定是十分危險的。

  鐵軍必有鐵的紀律。

  5.作出適當的暫停買賣

  日復一日的交易會令你的判斷逐漸遲鈍。一位成功的投資家說:每當我感到精神狀態和判斷效率低至90%,我開始賺不到錢,而當我的狀態低過90%時,便開始虧損,因此,建議會放下一切休息幾天。短暫的休息能令你重新認識市場,重新認識自己,更能幫你看清未來投資的方向。

  當太近森林時,你甚至不能看清眼前的樹。

  6.切勿盲目

  成功的投資者不會盲目跟從旁人的意思。當每人都認為應買入時,他們會伺機賣出。當大家都處於同一投資位置,尤其是那些小投資者亦都紛紛跟進時,成功的投資者會感到危險而改變路線。這和逆反的理論一樣,當大多數人說要買入時,你就該伺機賣出。

  真理有時候掌握在少數人手理。

  7.拒絕他人意見

  當你把握了市場的方向而有了基本的決定時,不要因旁人的影響而輕易改變決定。有時別人的意見會顯得很合理,因而促使你改變主意,然而事後才發現自己的決定才是最正確的。簡言之,別人的意見只是參考,自己的意見才是買賣的決定。

  建議是別人的,銀子是自己的。

  8.不明朗的市不入

  並非每天均需入市,初入行者往往熱衷於入市買賣,但成功的投資者則會等機會,當他們入市後感到疑惑時亦會先行離市。

  如果交易過程是您最大的快樂,請天天交易。 。 。 。 。

  9.當機立斷

投資外匯市場時,導致失敗的心理因素很多,一種頗為常見的情形是投資者面對損失,亦知道已不能心存饒幸時,卻往往因為猶豫不決,未能當機立斷,因而愈陷愈深,損失增加。

  不怕錯最怕拖。

  10.忘記過去的價位

  ”過去的價位”也是一項相當難以克服的心理障礙。不少投資者就是因為受到過去價位的影響,造成投資判斷有誤。一般來說,見過了高價之後,當市場回落時,對出現的新低價會感到相當不習慣;當時縱然各種分析顯示後市將會再跌,市場投資氣候十分惡劣,但投資者在這些新低價位水平前,非但不會把自己所持的貨售出,還會覺得很”低”而有買入的衝動,結果買入後便被牢牢地套住了。因此,投資者應當”忘記過去的價位”。

  牢記”歷史”,意味著對市場的背叛。

  11.忍耐也是投資

  投資市場有一句格言說”忍耐是一種投資”。這一點相信很少投資者能夠做到。外匯投資交易的人,必須培養良好的忍耐力,這往往是成敗的一個關鍵。不少投資者,並不是他們的分析能力低,也不是他們缺乏投資經驗,而是欠缺了一份耐力,過早買入或者賣出,於是導致無謂的損失。比如說一年裡,美元一直在漲,那麼始終持有美元不就是一種投資嗎?

  早起的鳥兒不一定有蟲子吃。

  12.設置止損止盈

  這是一項極其重要的投資技巧。由於投資市場風險頗高,為了避免萬一投資失誤時帶來的損失,因此每一次入市買賣時,我們都應該做好止損止盈,即當匯率跌至某個預定的價位,還可能下跌時,立即交易結清,因而這種計單是限制損失的訂單,這樣我們便可以限制損失的進一步擴大了。只有這樣,才能保證自己的利益最大化,損失最小化。世界上沒有萬能的理論、沒有萬能的技術分析方法、沒有萬能的分析師,任何高明的理論、精密的方法、高超的分析師都有錯的時候,只有設置止損才可以救你,讓你免受重大損失。切記!

  高空作業,請係好安全帶。

  13.重勢不重價

  當我們進行交易時,我們買入某種貨幣的原因是因為預期它將升值,事先買入待其升值後再賣出以博取差價。這個道理很明顯,但是,對於初入市的人往往忘了這個道理,不是把精力放在研究價格的未來走勢上,而是把眼光盯在交易成本上,總希望自己能成交一個比別人更低的價格,好像高買一點點都顯得自己弱智,經常是尋找了一時段的最低價,錯失買賣時機,等再看行情的時候看到沒有買到的貨幣升值時才追悔莫及。正確的做法是,認准大勢,迅速出擊,不要被眼前的利益所迷惑,只有它還能漲,今天任何時候買明天再看都是對的,今天的最高價也許就是明天的最低價。

  來摘西瓜,不要貪芝麻。

  14.關鍵在於自律

  很多交易策略和技巧人們都耳熟能詳,甚至倒背如流,什麼順勢而為、要設止損、當機立斷等等。為什麼還有那麼多人虧損呢?因為很多人都是:講得到,做不到!試想一下,行情不是漲就是跌,機會是一半對一半,十次買賣就算有五次虧、五次賺吧,如果能夠狠下決心,毫不手軟,虧的五次每次都是虧一點點就”壯士斷臂”,相信綜合計算賺多虧少並非難事。

  為什麼這麼多人缺乏自律的工夫呢?

  a.是僥倖心理、猶豫不決等心理在作怪。

  比如做了多頭,行情逆轉向下,心裡老想著:”不要緊,很快就會止跌回升”不斷安慰自己,以”希望”代替現實,”不拖”的原則便置之腦後了。

  b.是主觀太強誤了事。

  去買時心想”一定漲”,去賣時認定”一定跌”。絲毫沒有想到”萬一看錯了怎麼辦”,純粹的du博心理,不輸才不正常呢!

  c.是惰性作風造成。

  明知止損止盈一定要在第一時間進行,卻懶於馬上處理,抱著”到時候再說、看看也不遲”的心態,往往行情突變,自己措手不及。