ALS – Phantom, do you want to continue on rule one or is it time to move on to rule two?
Phantom of the Pits – There will be lots more on both rules so let’s get to rule two and see the other
side of the coin.
We will need to get to the qualifier of rule two but we will do that later. We’ll state rule two right
PRESS YOUR WINNERS CORRECTLY WITHOUT EXCEPTION.
Sounds pretty elementary but correctly is the key.
Quoted most of the time is cut your losses. Cutting you losses is only one side of the coin. Without
rule two, you will find that trading still isn’t even a 50/50 game. Without a correct method to press
your correct positions you will never recover much beyond your losses.
You need rule two to ensure you have a larger position when you are correct. You always want a
larger position when you get a great move or trending market than when your position isn’t correct.
There certainly will be debate on how you know when to add to a correct position and on how a
market can turn a correct position into a wrong position. We will cover those debates later. First let
us get the rules and reasons established. By knowing what is expected in rules one and two we can
prove the theorem based on good assumptions and experience.
Rule two does not mean just because you have a position in your favor that you must now add to
that position. Correctly in rule two means you must have a qualified plan of adding to your position
once a trend has established itself. The proper criteria for adding positions depends on your time
frame of expectation of your trade plan.
You might be a day trader just trading, a short term trader, weekly trader, monthly trader or trend
trader only . The add criteria will be different for each trade plan.
The important point of rule two is to point out the rule is established in order that you can make the
most gain with the least drawdown expectations. You must also use rule one properly.
Rule two is important for it keeps you in a good position as well as impresses upon your own
thinking of having a correct position initially. Most traders are conditioned to want to take a profit
to prove to themselves that they are right. Being right does not in itself make the most amount of
Most traders also want to get out before the market turns and takes away any profit they may have.
Ordinarily they will let losses get larger but only let gain get started before getting out. This is just
simple human nature when having a market position. Human nature in trading is not often proper
Always a good reason for adding to a winner is because traders usually tend to doubt the position
unless they re-enforce the correctness of that position. Adding to the position correctly best does
this. The other good reason is that you must be larger when correct a positioned than when your
position is wrong.
Correctly adding to a proven position must be done so that a pyramid isn’t established which will
hurt the trader in a minor reversal. Each add of original position should be done in smaller and
As an example, if you put 6 contracts on as your initial position you should use 4 contracts for your
first add and 2 contracts for your next add. This gives you twice the original position when all three
positions are in place. This is a 3:2:1 ratio in establishment of three levels of positioning.
At all times during the trade it is important that rule one be in your plan. This includes when you are
adding to your positions in order to protect your trade from any major reversals, which often happen.
Your plan for adding positions could be as simple as at each buy signal for longs and each sell
signals for shorts. It could be on 45-degree retracements or support lines. Without exception in the
rule indicates it is not an arbitrary decision on the trader’s part as to whether to add. Keep in mind
this does not exclude the correct method of adding in respect to variables of different trading plans.
What is a correct way of adding in one trade plan may not be in another.
In review of rule two, it states only that you must add to correct (proven) positions and that it must
be done correctly. The rule does not tell you how to add, as this is your requirement in the trade
plan you develop. The rule makes no exception on adding to correct positions. The intent is twofold
of rule two. It is to re-enforce your correct position both mentally in your thinking and by execution
in increasing the size of your position.
ALS – Phantom, what do you say to the traders who are going to ask you if they must add without
exception, why is there any question as to how to add correctly? Doesn’t the fact that a proven
position is correct indicate it is time to add?
POP – Adding can certainly be done this way but it is not always good for all trade plans. I often
times add immediately when my position has been proven correct because I tend to do it in smaller
steps and work more long-term trades. Let us say you are only a day trader trying to take out a little
of the market each day.
You will find your adds at the wrong place by adding as soon as your position is proven correct due
to the nature of the markets. They give you back and forth action much of the time, especially as
looking a day trade. One correct way for a day trader is to see that the position is proven correct and
then add at a proper retracement. This will not be the case for a trend trader.
A trend trader would most likely have at least one add at a breakout or break away gap. It all
depends on your trade plan. Your method of adding must be validated by your trade plan.
Day traders will have a problem with rule two unless they position properly and understand that
their adds must only be made correctly. Day traders are in for the quick profit so it is hard to have a
good add plan. Their best trade is to put all positions on at once where original and adds are all
placed at once and use rule one to take them off unless or until proven correct.
Believe me this is the proper probability in a loser’s game as is trading. Rule two says you must add
to your winners without exception. As a day trader you are only keeping a position if proven correct
or until proven correct. In a sense the market is deciding how large your position will be. The
variable can be from all to none in this situation.
Trend traders will get larger when they are correct but day traders will start larger and get smaller
when they are wrong. Day traders can be large when they are wrong but Trend traders will never be
large when they are wrong. This is due to the nature of a loser’s game for day traders.
By reducing your positions when wrong, your exposure is not extreme for a day trader provided
rule one continues to be followed. Exposure and risk are also an element of time in a position. That
is the edge the day trader is expecting to work to their advantage. Trend traders are expecting higher
probabilities in smoothing out the swings.
ALS – Aren’t you changing the rule here for day traders?
POP – Rule two must be used if you expect to make money in the long run. Your validation of how
you add is according to your trade plan and a day trading plan is certainly going to be geared for the
quick profit so why shouldn’t you have your biggest position to work with from the start.
Right or wrong, you are going to use rule one to protect at all cost. Criteria will be different for the
type of trading you do and scalping or day trading is a lower probability of making money than
most think. You have to be right when you get in and out and twice the execution cost for each
A day trader takes most positions on a fade of an expected range and on what they consider to be
the edge. Correctly for day traders is different for trend traders.
ALS – Wouldn’t you say that adding for day traders isn’t always a good rule.
POP – Adding correctly regardless of your time period is useful in making bigger gains in the long
run. Day trading is certainly a shorter run. A day trader should cheapen the cost of what they have
and to do this you almost certainly have to have your biggest position on first.
I use to watch a very good trader put a big position on and take it off until it proved to be correct.
He made good trades and ended up with bigger gains by doing it that way than adding after being
proven right. What you are missing here is his positions were larger at first and this really is the rule
two in that you still are larger when you are correct than if you had added later this way.
The drawback is that you are larger when you are wrong too, but it’s still a protected position if you
use rule one properly. It is acceptable but again I must remind you that rule one is critical here.
It looks like a modified rule two but as I stated your trade plan determines your method of adding. It
is understood that you want to be larger positioned when correct. This is a way to do a trade when
you don’t have an established trend and the probabilities are lower. I can’t rule out this method. I
have used it on short trades. When I feel I am trading an established trend, I have criteria for adding
which gives better positioning.
These two rules are to give you the long-term ability to continue to trade with the least amount of
drawdown and the best possibility of making the most money in the long run. Huge drawdown is
the critical reason some traders go out of the business.
You must start your trade plan with rules created to protect your equity. I am presenting those rules
to incorporate into your plan. Experience has proven these rules a necessity in survival and reaching
your objective of making the most return with the least amount of risk.
The follow up to rule two took place after feedback from the Futures talk forum when traders
expressed their questions about rule two.
Follow Up to Rule Two
It is clear that the traders are interested in more review on rule two. From the posts on the forum, it
seems to be a problem of understanding not only why to use rule two but exactly how they should
use rule two
I asked Phantom to give us more detail on his rule two in order that it can become more effective
for the traders. Phantom feels that there are several problems in understanding his rule two from
reading the posts of the trader’s forum. We will address a few of the problems and also try to
explain more on how to use rule two.
ALS – Phantom, It looks like your rule two is not a good rule for most of the traders who have given
return input on your rule?
Phantom of the Pits – By now you should see why we are spending so much time on just rules one
and two. Rule one understanding has been pretty good so far. Rule two has been a problem. I could
see that coming in the past posts. There is doubt in trader’s minds as to the real purpose of rule two
and why they should be saddled with a rule, which requires them to put a bigger position on than
they want to have.
The traders aren’t going to like what I am going to tell them here but I know they want me to be
totally honest with them. There are going to be several reasons why a trader does not want to come
up with a plan to add to winning positions. I will try to cover some of them.
ALS – Why is it that rule two doesn’t seem to work for most of the traders?
POP – One simple fact! That fact is that they are putting their entire position on at their entry into a
market. This is not rule two’s intent. A total position is a series of positions until the complete
expected position is established. They should only have their entire position established upon
getting the move as expected. Rule two addresses this expectation.
Keep in mind that I don’t blame the traders for their views on my rule two. It is not their thinking
but their trading situation we must address as a place to start with rule two. It is a solid rule and its
importance can not be diminished in trading.
Until you see the reward from rule two, it is very difficult to understand a bigger position being
anything but wrong to you as a trader. That is of course going to be some of your behavior
modification. Learning by experience is the only way that most traders will be able to accept this
It is important to learn this rule by more than just example. It is not a rule you learn by making a
mistake. It is a rule you learn by being rewarded for using the rule.
How can we reward the traders for using this rule by example? I don’t think we really can.
Therefore, we will explain why they are having difficulties and ask them to soul search as to the
truth of the problem being within their own situation.
The nature of trading is that more often you see a negative effect from what you have just done.
Seldom do you see or remember the good effects from the proper trading as often as the negative.
This will leave a plan to add to winners on the back burner when it is time to add unless you fully
understand the need for this rule.
The first problem with understanding rule two is that any time a trader can or does not incorporate a
plan to add to winners, they may be under funded and unable to margin properly the additional
positions in the add. Another aspect of being under funded may only be that over trading in the
original position is actually a problem from the start.
Anytime you plan a trade program; you must consider what size position you are looking to
establish. If your position as mine often is, is that you will have a total of six units upon completion
of your position entering, you can have a better idea of what you must fund. You need to be able to
fund the position from the start properly.
I believe most traders want to have a certain size position and from the start, that is the position they
place. This is not a correct way to allow you to use rule one and definitely rule two properly. You
see from the start of trading an expected move, your thinking is counter to ever adding in the first
True you should be at least twice as big or larger when right than when wrong, but you must work
that position into your trading plan. You never risk it all on the initial position being correct or you
are defeating the rule. You are trading more like a day trader if you put it all on at once.
Another reason for problems with rule two is that traders are actually day trading in order to not
have undue risk in their positions. This will cut their odds of making the goals expected in any kind
of move. It is more of a hit and run type trading. This type trading leaves you vulnerable to the flow
of orders into the pit.
We can never estimate the exact quantity or direction of order flow for more than a very short
period of time except in established moves. Sure we have our three phase theory and it does work to
an extent but never good enough for us to know without seeing before hand just where the price
turns are going to be. Looking back we can always pick the price turns and possible support and
I want the traders to ask themselves two questions! “Do you put your expected position on from the
initial entry? Are you planning for adds prior to your initial trade?” If the answer to either of these
questions is no, then you must go back and rethink your trading program. I have said it before. If
you can think it, you can do it. Perhaps the traders aren’t thinking it to begin because it certainly is
not expected thinking without the proper planning.
I knew we would have problems in trying to convey rule two and that is part of the reason we have
stepped back to wait and see the blank stares. We have those blank stares as I can tell from reading
the posts and resistance to rule two. That is ok for it is what can be expected from such a rule.
I don’t want to get into telling the traders their game plan for actual trades or their trading programs.
What I do want to do is to establish that you must consider the favorable side of adding to positions
when they are correct.
More thought must go into rule two as it is not as self-explaining as rule one. It is true that rule two
is what makes my money for me. It does it in the long run and not the short run. There are several
good aspects to the rule. We have discussed a couple of them previously. The fact that re-enforcing
a correct position actually keeps you thinking correctly is one of the important reasons of rule two.
Another aspect is that of course you will be with a larger position when you are correct. I think one
of the of the hidden benefits of using rule two in your trading plan is that it will actually keep you
from over trading from the entry through to the end of the position if used properly.
By incorporating rule two in your game plan from the start, you will be eliminating the desire to be
proud when the market moves your way and want to take profits to show that you are right. Traders
love to be right. This is your enemy to love to be right. Your motivation must be to love to do the
right thing in trading by either re-enforcing correctly your position or removing it should it not
prove out to be correct.
You see when you think you are right in the market, this is just the beginning of your trade. Not the
time to take your profits to say to the world “see I was right!” Let me ask you, who really cares if
your were right? So what? You will become the best trader you can be by being wrong-small not
right small! Get that in your mind now.
You are going to have to press your winners if you really expect to consider yourself with the
ability to make a living or extra income. Otherwise, face the truth that you are only playing to break
Who wants to play for a tie? I sure don’t! I remember a trader asking me how I felt about making
money in my early days. She wanted to know how much I made. I indicated to her that if I did not
make at least a thousand dollars a day, it wasn’t even worth trading to me. She said that she would
be happy with a hundred a day. I asked her if she added to winners. She said that there was no
reason to add to winners.
I didn’t mean to laugh at her but what she said. I pointed out to her that if she had three days a week
where she made money and two where she lost that she would be in the hole for it would be a 50/50
game if she was never able to add to winners. My point was that you must make bigger money on
your good days and not just the same amount of money you lose on your bad days. You would be
better working for a living rather than trading if that is the case.
Now I am not laughing at anyone! I meant what I said about my statements of respect for the small
trader! They need to know just why and how important it is to press winners before they will ever
be able to approach the idea into their trading plans.
It isn’t an obvious thought to think that even before you trade, you must have a plan to be bigger
when the market is going your way. The first thought is always what size position to take to reach
your goal. You must understand that you are not the one who will determine your market position
size. It is going to be the market and must always be the market.
Rule two is going to tell you to put a complete plan into effect before taking the initial position. The
light is starting to come on about rule two now. I can see some raised eyebrows in anticipation as to
what is possible now. Not only is rule two a saver of your drawdown by it’s proper use but it is an
enforcer in pointing that you are looking to have a complete position when your expected move
allows you to be totally positioned.
I am a little ashamed I did this, but I purposely held back the best part of the rule in order to see
who would come up with the important aspects of rule two. Rule one was hit bulls eye by I would
say at least half of those on the forum who thought it out. Rule two may have had a few who
understood but didn’t really make a remark on it.
I do know one who did hit the nail on the head. At any rate, there were others I think who did not
indicate much about rule two who most likely had some good clues.
On adding to winning positions, I could give you my trading plan and my signals and tell you
exactly when to add. But that would be doing the same thing as digging out the Mississippi on the
West Side and changing its course.
I would be better off trading for you and you would be better off giving me your money to trade. I
don’t want that at all. Don’t forget my faith in the small trader. You shall have to see the prospects
of rule two more clearly yourself.
I can not help you with over trading or being under margined. You must correct that situation before
you can ever expect to be on even ground with the big funds. You must at all times be able to only
put a portion of your expected position on at entry and be able to at least double your size
somewhere along the route of an expected move.
The protection is rule one but the biggest protection is rule two! Now I am going to tell you why
rule two is the biggest protection of all. You never suspected what I am going to point out.
You have all heard to not add to a loser! Well rule two takes care of that from the start by keeping
you with a smaller entry position in the first place. You never have your entire position until you are
getting the move you had expected.
Now why would I encourage you to have half of your total position at entry? Because it is a losers
game from the start and you knew that from rule one. Now from rule two, you find out that in order
to trade it correctly, you were never really suppose to have your initial position upon your entry of a
Can you tell me that you don’t expect the market to fade your trade to a slight point? You really are
going to pick a range when you are right and you are going to be at least half size when you are not
proven to be correct. When you take your loss with rule one, it is a milder way of slapping your
equity from the start.
Are you beginning to see any of the value of rule two yet? We can go into examples but
understanding the rule is what we want now. Trading programs will all have different aspects of
entry and adding. It is up to you now to understand rule two and try and incorporate it into your
I am giving you a rule which not only makes you larger when you are right but keeps you smaller
when you are wrong from the start of a position. I am also giving you a way to not over trade. It is
up to that you to make sure you are properly funded to make this step an important one in your
Never to over trade was one of the criteria of my rule two. A lot of thought went into rules one and
two and it must come out the other side for you in understanding before it will work well. Now you
have the background of rule two and can understand it a little better.
Whether we go any further on trying to impress the rule upon the traders depends upon it’s
acceptance by the traders whom I have complete faith. They shall continue to live up to my
expectations and I shall continue to be proud of the faith I have in them.
I say it again and I know for sure! Clothes makes the man in most cases if that man lets it change
his thinking and feeling to a point of betterment. Knowledge is your new suit.
ALS – Ok, you are telling the readers that to use rule two properly it will keep them from over
trading because their entire position is never in place until they have added the remainder of their
initially expected position only after the market has proven the position correct along the journey of
the move that they are working with in the trade.
What the traders have failed to see is that in order to correctly use rule two, they never put the entire
desired position on until or unless rule two is needed to be used along the way. Am I correct so far?
POP – Yes you are. What other points am I making?
ALS – Your rule two also is protecting from adding to losers and keeping the initial position smaller
until proven correct. Is that right?
POP – Not exactly, what I want them to understand about that point is that they will only get bigger
when their criteria in their trading program tells them it is time to add. They will not add just
because the initial position has been proven correct. When they have completed their adding of
additional positions, then and only then should they have their entire expected position established.
Traders are over trading most of the time when they say that they can’t seem to justify adding to an
existing position. Most of the time a trader does not think about the reason for adding because they
have their initial position on from the start. This is their maximum risk from the start. That is never
what you want in trading.
You must take some risk but never your maximum. That is exactly what they are doing if they can
not plan for added positions along the way.
ALS – It is so obvious now! It is just like playing chess and seeing after the stalemate that you could
have won so easily if you had just thought there could have been a stalemate.
POP – Yes, the trader is playing for a stalemate if they don’t use rule two in some form somewhere
along the way in their trading plan. Isn’t it simple? To want to have a correct position from the start
is over trading when you place an entire position.
Traders don’t add because they have their position. The big drawdown is that when that original
initial position is wrong, their losses are as large as there gains seem to be if they were right. We
don’t want that. Keep in mind that trading is always a losing game unless you change the odds.
With rules one and more so with rule two, you are changing what you can in trading to your
advantage. If any position is taken without forethought of adding to it later when it has been a
proven correct position, you are in a 50/50 game at best.
ALS – You also said the light should start coming on for the traders. Do you think this is enough to
digest or should we continue?
POP – It’s time to step back and let them get off the elevator. Let us see how many frowns we still
have and if we need to review more on rule two. My faith in the small trader is that they are the best
majority of one I could ever want in my class.
I am willing to consider the questions of my little Phantom’s. I can do it for a day, and I can do it
always? I am trying to make it possible for them to become the best traders they can be. I know that
they will grow up faster than they realize. Good luck to them as we see what their new plans
ALS – Any lights coming on? Do we understand CORRECTLY yet?
” PRESS YOUR WINNERS CORRECTLY WITHOUT EXCEPTION “—POP